Time Series Analysis of Non-Oil Export Demand and Economic Performance in Nigeria
نویسندگان
1 Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria
2 Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Akoka, Yaba, Lagos state, Nigeria
3 Department of Economics, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria
doi
10.22059/ier.2018.65366چکیده
T his study examines the impact of non-oil export demand on economic performance in Nigeria using annual time series data between 1975 and 2013. The study tests for the unit root and co-integration to determine the time series properties of our variables before using Vector Error Correction (VEC) model for both short- and long- run estimates and possible policy inferences. The results show that non-oil export has a positive impact on economic growth suggesting that policies formulated towards improving the export of non-oil commodities in Nigeria will directly boost output growth of other sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, services etc. The findings also reveal a uni-causal link from export to growth in Nigeria, thereby, supporting the export-led growth hypothesis. The policy implication of this finding is that failure on the part of policy makers to increase non-oil exports will directly hurt the economy of Nigeria. This is also consistent with the findings in the short-run. It was also found that capital and labor have direct and significant impact on output growth.