فهرست نشریات علمی دسترسی آزاد ایران

Purpose: East Azerbaijan Province plays a pivotal role in Iran's food production, yet it still falls short of international food security benchmarks. Therefore, a foresight-based scientific approach is essential to design sustainable future scenarios. This study aims to examine the interrelationships of various factors affecting food security and to develop realistic future scenarios to guide rural policy and planning.Methods: The study employed an impact analysis method and expert-based foresight techniques.  A survey was conducted with 31 experts in the food industry, agriculture, and future studies from the University of Tabriz. A total of 58 influencing factors were identified across four dimensions and organized into a 58 × 58 cross-impact matrix to examine their mutual relationships and potential influence on the future of food security.Results: The results showed that 54% of the factors influenced each other. Additionally, 33 possible states (ranging from optimal to sub-optimal) were designed for 11 key factors. Analysis revealed that 7,894 scenarios were weak and unreliable, while only 2 strong and 81 highly consistent scenarios were considered feasible for future planning.Conclusion: Among the viable scenarios, "Effective Planning to Reduce Food Waste and Loss" was identified as a valuable and most consistent scenario. This suggests that policies targeting waste and loss reduction are critical for enhancing food security in the province.