فهرست نشریات علمی دسترسی آزاد ایران

Population growth and climate change are worsening pressure on water supplies, altering rainfall-runoff patterns, and posing significant challenges for water management. Climate change profoundly affects society, particularly water reserves, through temperature shifts, precipitation changes, and disruptions of river flows, ultimately impacting water scarcity and ecosystems. The objective of this study is to project the possible effects of climate change on water yield in a cold-climate watershed located in Ardabil province. The GR4J conceptual model is used to simulate the hydrologic watershed response to changes in climatic factors. The HadCM3 model was used to examine meteorological parameters under the A1B climate scenario through implementing LARS-WG. The GR4J has been calibrated using a trial-and-error method to maximize the NS coefficient. The results were evaluated using NS and RE. The results showed a significant variation in water yield values across different periods. The biggest yearly water yield is in 2030, dropping to 49.79 million cubic meters in 2050, representing a 13.6 million cubic meters decrease. Based on the results, the highest positive change occurred in February, where the percentage increased from 93% in 2030 to 138% in 2060, representing a 45% increase. Additionally, the biggest negative change is projected in October, when the percentage decreased from 27% in 2030 to -11% in 2060, representing a decrease of -38%. The results suggest that flooding and extreme flow events will increase, while low flow events will decrease significantly under climate change conditions, and the simulated flow values also show more fluctuations in the projected periods.