Global psoriasis burden from 1990 to 2021: an analysis oftrends, inequalities, and spatial patterns based on the globalburden of disease study
نویسندگان
1 Basic and Molecular Epidemiology of Gastrointestinal Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
2 Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, School of Medicine, Tehran, Iran.
3 Allergy and Lung Health Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
4 Proteomics Research Center and Department of Biostatistics, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
5 Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Health and Metabolic Diseases Research Institute. Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
6 Zanjan University of Medical Sciences, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Zanjan, Iran
7 Department of Biostatistics, School of Allied Medical Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
8 Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, School of Medicine, Tehran, Iran
doi
10.22034/ijd.2025.549033.2109چکیده
Background: Psoriasis is a chronic, immune-mediated skin disease of growing global importance. This study estimated its burden across 204 countries from 1990 to 2021, analyzed trends according to the Human Development Index (HDI), identified geographic clusters, and projected patterns up to 2040.Methods: We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, focusing on the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and agestandardized disability-adjusted life years’ rate (ASDR). Trends were evaluated using joinpoint regression; associations with the HDI were examined through multilevel models; spatial clustering was assessed using Local Moran’s I; and future burden was projected with a hybrid ARIMA–ETS–ANN forecasting model.Results: From 1990 to 2021, global ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR increased by 8.75%, 8.00%, and 8.02%, respectively. The steepest rises occurred in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Countries with a higher HDI (≥ 0.788) showed faster growth across all measures. Spatial analysis revealed persistent hotspots in Western and Northern Europe, and emerging clusters in Southern Africa and North America. Projections indicate continued global increases through 2040, with South Asia expected to experience the most rapid growth in incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), while Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania are projected to have the highest future prevalence.Conclusion: This study provides a comprehensive global assessment of the burden of psoriasis, integrating temporal, spatial, and developmental dimensions alongside long-term projections. The findings highlight a continuing global rise and widening inequalities, underscoring the need for region-specific health strategies, improved dermatologic care, and early detection, particularly in resourcelimited settings.
