Modelling COVID-19 Infection Dynamics in the Presence of Interventions and Environmental Transmission
نویسندگان
1 Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park 2006, South Africa & Institute of Applied Research and Technology, Emirates Aviation University, Dubai International Academic City, United Arab Emirates
2 Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park 2006, South Africa
doi
10.22052/mir.2025.256993.1524چکیده
SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), a member of the \textit{Betacoronavirus} family, was declared a global pandemic in 2020. This study develops a mathematical model to investigate COVID-19 transmission in a heterogeneous population in South Africa, incorporating environmental transmission and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as mask efficacy. We analyze qualitative properties, including the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria relative to the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$. The analysis reveals a transcritical bifurcation at $\mathcal{R}_0=1$, indicating that simply reducing $\mathcal{R}_0$ below one is insufficient for disease elimination. This underscores the need for complementary measures, such as quarantine. Simulations highlight the roles of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, with reduced mask compliance promoting the persistence of the endemic state. The study concludes that quarantine remains a vital intervention for controlling transmission.
