فهرست نشریات علمی دسترسی آزاد ایران

This study was conducted to assess the habitat suitability of Carissa carandas in India, which is crucial for its sustainable integration into agriculture under changing climatic conditions. We utilized Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling to evaluate the species’ distribution across current and future scenarios (2050 and 2070) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Results indicated that temperature-related variables, particularly the Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Month (MiTCM, contributing 46.8% in 2070 RCP 2.6) and Isothermality (contributing up to 35.2% in 2070 RCP 8.5), are the dominant climatic drivers. Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) factors such as urbanization (49.8%), total cultivated land (28.1%), and grassland (9.0%) significantly influence habitat suitability. Under the current conditions, optimal habitat spans 4,588 km², decreasing by 38.95% under LULC scenarios. Projected habitat changes indicate 2.04% gain under 2070, but 11.06% decline under 2050 RCP 2.6. Southern and western regions, including Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, and Gujarat exhibit high suitability. Habitat fragmentation is projected in northern and western India due to climate change and land use modifications. These findings underscore the need for proactive conservation planning and climate-adaptive agricultural strategies to optimize the cultivation of C. carandas. Policymakers and stakeholders should focus on preserving suitable regions while mitigating urbanization-induced habitat loss.