Insights from the 2017 and 2020 Mw ~5 earthquakes around Tehran: Assessing seismicity and physical and social vulnerability

نویسندگان

1 Ph.D., Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China

2 Associate Professor, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, German, Potsdam

3 Ph.D., University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran

4 Ph.D., Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences (IASBS), Department of Earth Sciences, Zanjan, Iran

5 Ph.D., Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China

doi
10.30499/ijg.2024.445644.1579
چکیده

Tehran is one of the most earthquake-prone cities globally. This vast urban center, with a population exceeding 10 million, is intersected by several active faults, presenting significant seismic hazards. The occurrence of two Mw ~5 earthquakes in December 2017 near Malard and May 2020 near Damavand, further underscores the urgent need for comprehensive studies in the capital of Iran. his analysis primarily focuses on the 2017 and 2020 seismic events and their causative faults. Additionally, we highlight the limitations of Tehran's seismic monitoring and active faults map by addressing examples of unidentified seismic unrest and faults. By tackling the significant challenges of seismic studies and evaluating the preparedness of people and cities for a major earthquake, we draw insights from recent earthquakes around Tehran. Results show that the Malard and Damavand earthquakes occurred on the previously unknown and Mosha faults, respectively. Sparse seismic stations limit route detection thresholds and location accuracy of seismicity near Tehran. In addition, we show that the dispersion of population and distressed fabrics in Tehran is clustered, and the vulnerability to earthquakes is linked to both physical and social factors. This study holds immense importance in enhancing seismological research and risk reduction strategies for the Tehran province.