Economic impacts of climate change on agricultural production and adaptive strategies for farmers in the Fergana Valley, Uzbekistan
نویسندگان
1 Department of Economics, Mamun University, Khiva, Uzbekistan, &1Department of Finance, Alfraganus University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
2 Department of Finance and Tourism, Termez University of Economics and Service, Termez, Uzbekistan
3 Research Center
4 Department of Special Pedagogy, Chirchik State Pedagogical University, Chirchik, Republic of Uzbekistan
5 International Islamic Academy of Uzbekistan, 11 Abdulla Qodiri Street, Tashkent, 100011, Uzbekistan
6 Tashkent University of Information Technologies named after Muhammad al-Khwarizmi, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
doi
10.22124/cjes.2026.9361چکیده
This study aimed to explore the economic impacts of climate change on agricultural production and analyze the adaptation strategies of farmers in the Fergana Valley, Uzbekistan. Based on a mixed-methods approach using structured interviews with 120 farmers and secondary data analysis, the findings revealed tangible consequences of the effects of climate change that now have become a major economic problem. Specifically, 94% of the surveyed farmers reported that summer temperature has increased significantly, and 88% mentioned that the decrease in spring precipitation, due to which wheat and cotton yields were reduced by an average of 17–20%. In the same vein, 92% of the respondents faced a significant increase in irrigation costs of 45–60%. These trends have generated a growing gap between costs and income, especially for smallholders, as 89% reported a decrease in income. On the contrary, whereas adaptation strategies-such as cropping date shifting with a 91% adoption rate-received widespread response, more effective and capital-intensive solutions, like drip irrigation with a 19% adoption rate, were narrowly applied due to structural barriers, such as high initial cost (95%) and access to credit (78%). The study concludes that, in order for this region to achieve effective and sustainable adaptation, one should move away from individual actions to designing integrated institutional support packages that allow for facilitation in access to financial resources, technical knowledge, and insurance.
