Population growth model of the carob moth, Ectomyelois ceratoniae (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) under field conditions
نویسندگان
1 Department of Plant Protection, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
2 Department of Plant Protection, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
3 Institute of Biochemistry and Biophysics, School of Engineering Sience, University of Tehran, Iran
4 Iranian Research Institute of Plant Protection, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.
5 Department of Plant Protection, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
doi
10.22117/jesi.2021.351974.1396چکیده
The carob moth, Ectomyelois ceratoniae Zeller, is the most important pest on pomegranate fruits and has several overlapping generations per year in Iran. This paper investigated the use of a mechanistic model for describing the effect of the control strategy on the size of the total population of the carob moth. The analytical solution of mechanistic model was written in the form of a logistic probability density function by Matis et al. (2006). The logistic probability density function fits this carob moth data very well for control and treatment fields (r2=0.91 and 0.95). The parameters of the model are the predicted peak size, Nmax, the predicted time of peak, tmax, and an approximate per capita birth and death rate, all of which are important in practical application. In general, this paper demonstrates the utility of analyzing carob moth population data using mechanistic models and their underlying rate parameters.
