فهرست نشریات علمی دسترسی آزاد ایران

This study investigates the impact of supply chain risks on the Economic Resilience Index within Iran’s oil-related industries by employing linear Bayesian models and Weighted Least Squares (WLS) approaches. Adopting an exploratory research design, the study covers the period from 2001 to 2023. The statistical population includes all companies listed on the Iranian capital market, from which oil, petrochemical, and chemical sectors were purposively selected. A total of 102 supply chain risks were identified based on both theoretical and empirical foundations—80 classified as unsystematic and 22 as systematic risks. Among the various modelling approaches examined—including Dynamic, Selective, Bayesian, and Weighted Least Squares Averaging models—the WLS model yielded the most accurate results and was therefore used for the primary analysis. The findings reveal that ten key unsystematic risks significantly influenced the Economic Resilience Index in the selected industries: The Briguglio Resilience Index, corporate financial crises, earnings per share, firm size, total debt-to-assets ratio, operating profit-to-sales ratio, debt financing constraints, company life cycle, institutional ownership, and the Centennial Index. Additionally, six systematic risks were found to be influential: international sanctions, oil revenue volatility, economic growth volatility, inflation volatility, foreign direct investment (FDI), and unofficial exchange rate fluctuations. Overall, 9.8% of systematic risks and 5.88% of unsystematic risks were categorised as non-fragile factors that contribute to supply chain resilience in the oil, petrochemical, and chemical sectors.