فهرست نشریات علمی دسترسی آزاد ایران

Cost optimization and increasing fleet reliability are among the main challenges in urban public transportation management. In this research, temporal failure patterns of critical bus components in various cities of Iran have been modeled and evaluated through analysis of real data collected from intelligent urban fleet systems. Comparative analysis of analytical methods showed that the Decision Forest model with an average accuracy (F1-score) of 89% (compared to Log-rank test 42.3%, stratified Cox 64%, and Decision Tree 85%) demonstrates superior performance in predicting component failures. Results indicate that environmental factors, operation, and utilization methods have significant effects on component lifespan. Accordingly, a predictive maintenance planning framework has been presented which, based on simulation results, leads to a 41% reduction in maintenance costs and a 65% decrease in fleet downtime.