Impact of fuel prices on electricity price using the predictive power of ANN-GA, LRM: Evidence from Iran
نویسندگان
1 Business School, Victoria University, Australia
2 MS.c of Artificial intelligence Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
3 MS.c of Electrical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
4 Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
doi
چکیده
In Iran, the energy price is very much influenced by the dollar price. However, this price is highly fluctuated due to various reasons. The emergence of the pandemic, the covid-19, from one part and the financial sanctions on the economy from another, cause the high volatility on this foreign currency. First, in this study, we converted the IRR (Iranian currency) into the same dollar rate of the year, contributing to the impact of exchange rate volatility in the model. Then, we forecast the price of all three principal fuels that affect the cost of electricity production, and then we forecast the electricity prices using ANN_GA and the historical data. This study also examines the fundamental and exacerbating causes in recent years, especially in 2018 when we faced an unprecedented increase in dollar prices in the Iranian market when the U.S. withdrew from the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPA), and its effects are still visible. We intend to investigate the impact of these fluctuations on the future electricity market. In the end, we examine that which variables (fuel prices) would affect electricity prices the most using a linear regression model.
