Diffusion of electric commercial vehicle as product service system: Modelling advertisement effect using agent-based simulation
نویسندگان
1 Department of Industrial Management and Information Technology, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Industrial Management and Information Technology, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Department of Industrial Management and Information Technology, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
4 Department of Industrial Management and Information Technology, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
doi
10.22105/jarie.2026.548828.1903چکیده
Tehran’s freight sector faces severe air pollution, largely caused by diesel-powered commercial vehicles, highlighting an urgent need for cleaner alternatives. Electric Commercial Vehicles offered through Product–Service Systems (ECV-PSS) represent a promising solution, yet their adoption in Developing Countries (DCs) remains poorly understood. This study investigates the conditions under which ECV-PSS can effectively replace diesel vehicles in Iran and assesses whether advertising can complement or substitute government subsidies. We integrate Choice-Based Conjoint (CBC) analysis with an empirically grounded Agent-Based Simulation (ABS) to model customer adoption behavior. CBC results from 321 validated respondents provide individual-level part-worth utilities, which serve as inputs for simulating diffusion dynamics under multiple technological, financial, and policy scenarios. Results show that vehicle type and monthly rental cost are the most influential attributes. Technological improvements, extending range to over 400 km and expanding charging-station coverage, raise ECV-PSS market share from 2.7% (baseline) to 6.9% over ten years. Government incentives further increase adoption to 12.7%, and combining incentives with technology advancements yields 16.1%. The sensitivity analysis shows that improving advertisement effectiveness can yield market-share gains similar to subsidies, especially when Advertising Effectiveness (AE) is between 0.15 and 0.30. This study contributes by 1) providing the first empirically calibrated ECV-PSS diffusion model for a developing country, 2) integrating CBC-derived utilities directly into ABS, and 3) quantifying the relative impacts of technology, subsidies, and advertising on ECV-PSS uptake.
