Forecasting factors affecting stock price fluctuations using the scenario planning approach
نویسندگان
1 Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
2 Department of Business Management, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
3 Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Economics, Management and Administrative Sciences, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
4 Department of Computer Software Engineering, Faculty of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran.
doi
10.22105/jarie.2023.370729.1514چکیده
In this study, we explain the future potential scenarios of factors affecting stock price fluctuations in the Tehran Stock Exchange concerning the 2026 perspective. This research is applied, cross-sectional, and qualitative, and is implemented as a descriptive survey using the scenario planning approach. The statistical population is a collection of financial experts; We selected 15 of them as a sample using the judgmental/purposive and network (snowball) sampling methods. In the first step, we identified the key uncertainties of the factors affecting stock price fluctuations using the Fuzzy Delphi method, then by identifying the probable modes of each of the key uncertainties, three compatible scenarios were determined by Scenario Wizard software, and finally, the experts suggested strategies for these scenarios.
