Scenario-based modelling of ecological security: Integrating land use and climate change impacts in the Lavasanat Watershed
نویسندگان
1 Ph.D. in Environmental Planning, Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Safety, Health and Environment, Faculty of Passive Defense, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran
doi
10.22069/ijerr.2025.23274.1475چکیده
Understanding the impact of land-use and climate change on ecosystem services is crucial for ecological security assessments. This study examines spatiotemporal land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes in the Lavasanat watershed, Tehran, Iran (2000–2040) and evaluates their effects on water yield under different management and climate scenarios.Four LULC scenarios were defined: S1 (business-as-usual), S2 (pessimistic), S3 (realistic), and S4 (optimistic). Additionally, three climate scenarios (B1, N, and M) were incorporated into the analysis. The InVEST model was used to simulate water yield variations, while CA-Markov and LARS-WG5 projected future LULC and climate conditions.Findings indicate a 1.92-fold increase in water yield in residential areas from 2000 to 2020. The highest water yield was recorded under S2N (37.64 million m³ watershed-wide, 35.09 million m³ in residential areas), while the lowest was observed under S4M (8.33 million m³ watershed-wide, 7.35 million m³ in residential areas). All scenarios suggest that urban expansion will continue to drive water yield increases while reducing ecologically valuable lands by 2040.These findings highlight the critical role of sustainable land-use planning in mitigating environmental degradation and ensuring ecological security in rapidly urbanizing watersheds.
