Analysis of the Prediction of Earthquake Locations in Anatolia and Adjacent Regions of 1974 in Connection with the 2023 Türkiye-Syria Great Earthquakes
نویسندگان
1 DSci, Ph.D., Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia
2 Ph.D., Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Moscow, Russia
doi
10.48303/jsee.2023.2010510.1071چکیده
On February 6, 2023, two devastating earthquakes occurred in the southeast of Türkiye with an interval of 9 hours, which also affected the territory of Syria. The position of the epicenters of these earthquakes is discussed in connectionwith the forecast of M6.5+ earthquake locations for the territory of Anatolia and adjacent regions, obtained in 1974 by Gelfand et al., based on morphostructural zoning data employing the Cora-3 pattern recognition algorithm. It has beenestablished that the epicenters of the earthquakes of February 6, 2023 were located in the node, which in 1974 was identified as capable of M6.5+. Since 1974, 36 M6.5+ events have been observed in the study region. The spatial distribution of these events is analyzed in relation to the seismogenic nodes recognized in 1974. It was found that the epicenters of 32 such events are located in the nodes recognized as dangerous for M6.5+ in 1974.
