فهرست نشریات علمی دسترسی آزاد ایران

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Thailand is a significant emitter of greenhouse gases especially emissions from the energy sector, originated from the transportation sector. The government is prioritizing carbon reduction efforts in Thailand; concurrently, the battery electric vehicle industry is experiencing global growth. It stresses the need to decrease carbon emissions in transportation by moving towards battery electric vehicles. Conversely, Thailand lacks a comprehensive understanding of how battery electric vehicles influence carbon emissions. The study objectives were to explore the carbon reduction potential of the transition to electric vehicles and develops methods for estimating carbon emissions using micro-simulations.METHODS: The Multi-Agent Transport Simulation was used for simulation of the traffic in Phuket, Thailand. There were two attributes for simulation: a road network and an agent’s plan. The road network contained details of road segments in Phuket. The agent’s proposal featured trips for Phuket residents, formulated from population assumptions based on survey data. The model from the simulation is validated with actual traffic reports of main roads in Phuket and estimated carbon emissions for every single person. Subsequently, scenarios were created by analyzing the proportions of internal combustion engine vehicles in relation to battery electric vehicles on the network to evaluate carbon emissions.FINDINGS: The model captures general travel behavior trends. Despite moderate alignment between simulated and observed traffic speeds and trip durations, the model demonstrates reasonable validity for representing typical travel behavior in Phuket. Nonetheless, the modest coefficient of determination value, along with the exaggerated trip durations, points to possible constraints in the network intricacies and population estimates. For carbon emission estimation, the emission trend exhibited an approximately linear relationship. Increasing the proportion of battery electric vehicles to 10 per cent resulted in an approximate 7 per cent reduction in total carbon emissions. Notably, emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles decreased by roughly 10 percent, in contrast to the 3 percent increase in emissions from battery electric vehicles.CONCLUSION: Model accuracy could be enhanced by incorporating more detailed input data, including a greater variety of vehicle types, and a more complete transport network (such as minor roads). Furthermore, thorough survey data encompassing population activity times, home addresses, and workplace coordinates would significantly boost the model's performance. Even though the model can provide any probability of battery electric vehicle proportion. In the practical way, an optimal proportion depends on subsidization from government departments. The anticipated outcomes are intended to serve as guidelines for detailed planning policies focused on enhancing the quantity of battery electric vehicles and minimizing carbon output in Thailand's transportation system.