فهرست نشریات علمی دسترسی آزاد ایران

This study examines how tax shocks, government spending shocks, and government bond interest rate shocks impact economic growth and income inequality in Iran, emphasizing human capital as a mediating factor. We develop a New Keynesian DSGE model, incorporating households, firms, the foreign trade, the oil sector, the central bank, and the government. Using Bayesian methods and annual data from 2004 to 2023, we estimate model parameters to capture economic dynamics robustly. The results indicate that economic growth and income inequality are inversely related. Specifically, tax increases, spending cuts, and higher bond interest rates hinder growth, reduce human capital accumulation, and exacerbate inequality— highlighting the need for targeted fiscal reforms. To address these challenges, we propose three policy recommendations: First, broadening the tax base by enhancing compliance and formalizing the informal sector, rather than raising tax rates. Second, improving the efficiency of public spending by reallocating resources to high-impact sectors and replacing blanket subsidies with targeted cash transfers. Third, reducing reliance on high-interest bonds and shifting toward public-private partnerships (PPPs). By integrating these shocks into a DSGE model for Iran’s growth-inequality nexus, this study provides novel insights, underscoring the overlooked role of human capital in shaping economic outcomes.