Investigating the impact of private sector credit on self-employment in Iran: A hybrid artificial intelligence and spatial modelling approach

نویسندگان

1 Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

2 Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

3 Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

4 Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

doi
10.22099/ijes.2025.51966.1985
چکیده

Self-employment plays an important role in the Iranian economy and understanding the factors affecting it is of great importance. This study aimed to investigate the impact of private sector credit on self-employment in Iran using artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks, deep neural networks and machine learning algorithms to identify nonlinear relationships and complex patterns in the data. Also, spatial econometric models SAR, SEM and SDM were used to consider spatial dependencies between provinces and to examine the spatial spillover effects of use for the period 1990-2023 at the provincial level of the country.The findings indicate a negative and significant relationship between the ratio of microfinance to GDP and the self-employment rate. Also, the negative coefficients of the economic openness index and the capital formation rate indicate their negative effect on self-employment. In contrast, the variables of total factor productivity and educational expenditure have a positive and significant effect on the self-employment rate. The results of the spatial models also indicate the dependence of the self-employment rate in different regions of the country on each other. Therefore, this study found a negative relationship between the two, which could be due to inefficiency in the provision of microfinance and its insufficient focus on creating sustainable and productive jobs. Increased economic openness and higher rates of capital formation also have a negative effect on self-employment by intensifying foreign competition and encouraging investment in larger economic sectors.

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