فهرست نشریات علمی دسترسی آزاد ایران

Oil has a large share of the world's total energy consumption. For this reason, it is obvious that any fluctuations in demand, supply, price and other variables affecting this sector have many effects on the economy of oil producing and consuming countries. Any factor that causes a disruption in the supply or demand of oil and the subsequent market will in most cases lead to a change (decrease or increase) in the price. These price changes have had effects on the behavior of energy producers and consumers due to the price determining factor on both supply and demand sides of the energy market. This study examines the inter-variable time-varying conditional correlation between the world oil price and the return of industrial production index (real GDP) in oil exporting countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE) and OECD countries. Therefore, in this study, using the monthly data of world oil prices, the efficiency of the industrial production index of the Middle East and OECD countries from 2000-2021, and using the Oxmetrics software, the time-varying conditional correlation of the global oil price and the efficiency of the production index Industry in selected countries has been analyzed by CDCC-GARCH method. The results showed that the time-varying conditional correlation with the global oil price and GDP is real and the changes in the final oil price have caused significant changes in the dynamic correlation between the variables in the form of uncertainty.