Trends of road traffic mortality in Tehran city during 2012-2021
نویسندگان
1 Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Center and Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical sciences, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of Epidemiology, Liver and Digestive Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Public Health, Asadabad School of Medical Sciences, Asadabad, Iran
4 Occupational Health & Safety Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
5 Police University, Tehran, Iran
doi
10.48307/atr.2025.504096.1196چکیده
Background: Over the past decade, road traffic accidents in Iran have claimed approximately 15,000 to 20,000 lives annually. Tehran, the nation's capital and largest city, stands out as one of the most hazardous locations for traffic incidents, with high rates of fatalities and injuries reported in recent years.Objectives: This study aimed to analyze the trends in road traffic-related mortality in Tehran from 2012 to 2021.Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out in 2022. Data on traffic-related deaths were sourced from records maintained by the traffic police and forensic databases. Geographic and land feature data were collected from the Mapping Organization and the Statistical Center of Iran. Spatial data were analyzed using specialized statistical methods. To examine the impact of local and regional factors on road traffic deaths and to assess trends over the study period, generalized Poisson regression and negative binomial regression models were utilized.Results: Among Tehran's urban regions, Region 15 reported the highest number of fatal accidents, with 711 cases, while Region 13 had the lowest frequency, recording 113 cases. Region 15, located in the southeastern part of Tehran, is a bustling area that culminates near the city's primary marketplaces. Over the years, a pronounced reduction in fatalities has been observed compared to 2012 figures. Several factors were found to correlate with mortality rates. A positive correlation was identified for variables such as the number of students, commercial units, highways, arterial roads, and land use. Conversely, population density and limited parking availability exhibited a negative correlation with the mortality rate.Conclusion: The relative risk of death from traffic accidents during the analyzed years showed a statistically significant decline according to the Poisson modeling. However, road traffic mortality remained higher in peripheral districts and in areas with major motorways and arterial roads compared to the central parts of Tehran.
