فهرست نشریات علمی دسترسی آزاد ایران

This study investigates the transmission channels of monetary policy effects on household consumption in Iran using a Threshold Structural Vector Autoregression (TSVAR) model and monthly data from 2006 to 2023. Empirical results demonstrate that the impact and symmetry of monetary policy on household spending are highly regime-dependent. In low-inflation periods, monetary easing mainly increases consumption through enhanced bank credit and exchange rate stability, resulting in significant and persistent effects. In contrast, under high inflation, these effects weaken, become short-lived or unstable, and the role of the stock market channel becomes more volatile and limited. Impulse response analysis also confirms asymmetric and heterogeneous channel behavior in response to monetary shocks. Overall, the findings underscore the need for regime-specific and channel-oriented monetary policy to support household welfare and macroeconomic stability in Iran.