Scenarios of the Islamic Revolution Influenced by the Megatrends of the New World Order in the 2035 Horizon
نویسندگان
1 Assistant Professor, Future Studies Department, Imam Hussein (AS) Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Faculty of Governance, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3 PhD Candidate in Futures Studies, Imam Hussein Comprehensive University, Iran, Tehran
4 Faculty Member, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Thought, University of Tehran, Tehran,Iran.
doi
10.22059/jcrir.2025.391072.1687چکیده
Abstract Objective:: The purpose of this research is to identify the scenarios for the Islamic Revolution as influenced by the megatrends of the new world order in the 2035 AD/1414 SH horizon.Methodology: This study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative techniques. It utilizes futures studies methods such as balanced cross-impact analysis and scenario writing, supported by Scenario Wizard and Micmac software.Findings: From initial 1,536 scenarios generated by the software, seven core scenarios were selected based on expert opinion: "Rise of Resistance, end of resistance, fall of the eagle, new American era, and coalition against Iran, everyone's failure, and order in disorder."Conclusions: Seven core scenarios of rise of resistance, end of resistance, fall of the eagle, new American era, coalition against Iran, everyone's failure, and order in disorder were identified and confirmed by experts as the primary scenarios.
