فهرست نشریات علمی دسترسی آزاد ایران

Background: Today, the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is known as a public health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO). Therefore, risk assessment is necessary for making a correct decision in disease management. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the risk of progression to the critical stage in COVID-19 patients, based on the early quantitative chest computed tomography (CT) parameters. Results: No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding the lung volume percentages at different density intervals within 0 - 4 days (P = 0.596-0.938); however, this difference began to become significant within 5 - 9 days and persisted even after one month. Overall, the quantitative CT parameters could well predict the severity of COVID-19. The lung volume percentage of -7 Hounsfield units (-7 HUs) had the largest crude odds ratio (OR: 1.999; 95% CI, 1.453 ~ 2.750; P < 0.001) and adjusted OR (adjusted OR: 1.768; 95% CI, 1.114 ~ 2.808; P = 0.016). The lung volume percentage of -6 HU showed the best predictive performance with the largest AUC of 0.808; the cutoff value of 5.93% showed 71.79% sensitivity and 84.62% specificity. Conclusion: Early quantitative chest CT parameters can be measured to assess the risk of progression to the critical stage of COVID-19; this is of critical importance in the clinical management of this disease.